"Yemen with Trump Policy"

"The complexity of Yemeni conflict and the need to resolve it before Trump access to the White House"

"Yemen with Trump Policy"
Mosnad News-analyzes unit-specific   [ الجمعة, 13 يناير, 2017 05:32:00 مساءً ]

Barack Obama will leave the White House in the late of current January and the president-elected "Trump" will take up the United States policy in the world, which is getting more complexity and overlapping for its files as before World War ll
 
Trump has a little political experience, so all the eyes will be turned toward the attitudes of his top national, military and political aides and advisers about the bloody conflicts in the Middle East. After the majestic viewing of Trump during the election campaigns that was focusing his efforts in US inside terms rather than outside it. Trump was seemingly not to be out of the circle of Middle East conflicts because they are the source for the US internal stability of an existing enemy that US needs to be always dominant to control and accomplish the tasks for the services of its citizens.
 
According to the magazine of The American Conservative, what units the advisers of the new president is their hostile on Iran and considering Saudi Arabia as an ally on Iranian expansion. For that, all eyes will turn attention to Yemen as a test to Trump policy towards the Arabian world according to the American magazine of The National Interest too.
 
"Since Saudi Arabia has led the coalition against the Iranian expansion assumed in Yemen, United States will stand with Saudi Arabia against Houthi rebels and even if Trump believes that supporting the Saudi-led coalition is a bad deal, the others on Trump administration won't believe that ", the American Conservative clarified. 
 
The complexity of Yemeni problem
American political commentators believe that the Yemeni conflict is the most complex conflict in the Middle East because it linked with more affairs including Syria, Iraq, Iranian policy and fighting on terrorism as it begins to take shape to be a part of the crisis between Washington and Moscow. So some of those analysts who are some of them are Arab believe on what will determines the content of the Yemeni crisis are two battles taking place in Syrian Aleppo and Iraqi Mosul in a period leading up to the arrival of Trump to the White House.
 
Moscow was seeking to resolve the battle of Aleppo in favor of the Syrian regime and that was to do so while Iran seeking to achieve a real breach in the battle of Mosul where is recruited all its strength and forces to resolve it before the date of Trump access to the White House. In the case of doing that, the Yemeni conflict will be in front of their goals to measure the US reaction towards its and the region issues.
 
Moscow and Tehran do not want to study the reaction of the new US president's policy in two pivotal issues of them and relate to their strategy interests. Yemen is full-scale to measure US reaction toward its traditional allies and its strategy interests with threatening international corridors.
 
Talat Rmeih, a political strategist expert, believes that the change of Trump policy as well as the libration of Aleppo and Mosul are settled occurrence variables and should not be waiting for their occurrence while Yemen is has not resolved its case yet. The Iranian regime then will be as a finder move to turn all its additional forces after resolving the most dangerous of its battles. For that, we are hearing the name of Yemen on the sectarian Crowd statements. This change will carry a new dash for Russian-Iranian alliance towards the unsolved issues in the region, which the most important issue for them is Yemen.
 
The Cooperation with Russia-Iran Alliance
In an analysis of the researcher Michael Horton in Jamestown Foundation-seen by Mosnad News- partly dismantle a look Trump to Yemen, believe that the Yemeni civil war in which US is clearly involved will be a test to reveal the coming administration of Trump.
 
The agreement reached by the US Minister of State John Kerry with Omani officials for a ceasefire in Yemen did not last more than the period of the latest previous year agreement. The war in Yemen will continue with a low level after Trump access to the power.
 
Trump focused during the election campaign to fight the Salafists indicating that he would work with the Russian president Vladimir Putin in Syria to fight the organization of Daesh. However, Horton confirmed that Trump believes that the Iranian Nuclear Agreement is one of the worst negotiating deals ever and this will lead to the point of that Trump administration will take in account the opinions of neo-conservatives who have that policy such invasion of Iraq that lead to more strength for Iran.
 
However, in an event of a wider, Russia failure in Syria means Russia turns on the Yemeni conflict to put a pressure on Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which are the supporters of the Syrian revolutionaries. Therefore, it will not find a conflict could influence on Saudi Arabia but Yemen where the alliances could be changed and make the Houthis, who formed new government, to put US in a position of Russian semi-recognition if there are an appropriate time and environment to Saudi Arabia.
 
The Recognition of Iran's Influence
Gerald M.Firestein, the former US ambassador to Yemen and the head of Gulf unit in the Middle East Institute, talked on an article, which is followed by Mosnad News,  about his recommendations to the new administration regarding the Arabian Gulf clarifying that the US policy became a two-track based on the quiet support for Saudi-led alliance with supporting UN political solution efforts at the same time. While this conflict is continuing, this policy has become under sustained pressure.
 
The legitimate security concerns of the Saudi sensitivity is essential despite all these pressures and US should recognize the any Iranian foothold feet in the south of Arabian Peninsula and along the borders of Saudi Arabia is a red line and should not be accepted by Saudis.
 
US offering of the Iranian influence in Yemen needs more to be recognized by it such as the results of investigations about the seized Iranian arms shipments in the Arabian Sea that were in the way to Houthi rebels. US should also recognize the report that submitted by an European Union arms research center. Through these recognitions, we can talk about the American supporting to Saudi Arabia and will make a great role to end the war in Yemen. However, waiting for a confused US policy is a bigger threat for on Arabian Peninsula because it refers to the dismantling of the legitimate government in exchange the recognition of the legitimacy of the coup
.
Military Takeover
There is no way is remained for the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government but speeding of the military takeover in the country without delay and the experience of Kerry roadmap and the formation of Shi'ite government in Sanaa is sufficient to ensure that a political solution would be in vain.
 
Waiting for the arrival of Trump to the White House will not consider an advantage but for Iran and will increase the pressures on Gulf countries to concede other issues to Iran.
 
" Urgency does not hold any suggestion that the past efforts has been slow but the factor of time will not be in the interests of achieving decisiveness that was delayed and the later decisive achievement  on the regional and international changes that certainly had occurred, will require more human and financial cost", Talat said.
 
The regional and international situation after changing attitudes map and locations during coming period will get more complex changes and pressures toward making the Yemeni conflict of a bargaining point with interests and influence division.
    
  
 
 
 



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